Yogyakarta, July 14, 2025 — The “Time Series Model for Risk Management and Insurance” workshop officially began today in Meeting Room 1, Department of Mathematics, UGM, and was also broadcast online via Zoom. The three-day event, running from July 14 to 16, 2025, aims to equip participants with a deep understanding of applying time series models in risk management and insurance, especially amidst climate change issues and challenges in agricultural insurance.
The first day’s activities kicked off with an introductory session from Prof. Dr. Gunardi, M.Si, representing the Statistics Laboratory of the UGM Department of Mathematics. In his introduction, Prof. Gunardi emphasized the importance of time series models in interpreting temporal patterns in insurance data, which often exhibit trends and seasonality. He also highlighted the increasing relevance of these models in addressing dynamic climate risks that directly impact the agricultural sector.
The first session of the workshop featured Dr. Mohd Mahayaudin Mansor from Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Malaysia, with a presentation titled “Understanding Time Series Data in R.” In his session, Dr. Mahayaudin provided a comprehensive introduction to the fundamentals of time series data and their application using the R software.
The second session was continued by Paul Setio Kartono, FSAI, Chairman of the Indonesian Actuaries Association (PAI), who delivered material on Insurance Modelling. This session focused on the practice of risk modeling in the insurance industry and how time series approaches can be used to forecast future claims and insurance losses.
After a lunch and prayer break (ISHOMA), Dr. Mahayaudin returned for the third session with the topic “Univariate Time Series Models and Their Limitations,” explaining how various popular univariate models like ARIMA and SARIMA can perform time series modeling in the context of complex insurance data. The conclusion of this session also marked the end of the first day’s workshop activities, which ran smoothly and with great enthusiasm.
Keywords: Time Series Modeling, Risk Management, Actuarial Science
Author: Fathan Rasyid Rahmadhan
Photo: Fathan Rasyid Rahmadhan